August 2026 turned on a single weekend: after a three-day pause and a last-ditch round of talks, the US and Canada failed to finalize a trade deal, and the 50% Section 338 tariff on Canadian autos, alcohol, dairy, furniture and more took effect 12:01 a.m. ET Saturday, August 22. Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended negotiations, recalled Canada's negotiating team, and confirmed the next day that Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation — on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics — starts September 8, 2026, with the detailed product list to follow. Earlier in the month: a Section 232 tariff on drones (100% on large/thermal models, 25% on consumer models, effective September 3) and one on polysilicon and solar-supply-chain products (15% plus minimum import prices, effective December 4) were both announced; a four-year Section 201 safeguard tariff-rate quota on quartz surface products took effect August 15; CBP told a federal court over $100 billion of the $166 billion IEEPA refund pool has been certified and sent to Treasury; DOJ asked the Federal Circuit to vacate the CIT's reliquidation order for finally liquidated IEEPA entries; and 25 states sued in the Court of International Trade to block the Section 301 forced-labor tariff. This page tracks every major development, organized chronologically. Bookmark it — we update as news breaks.
August 2026
August 22: CANADA CONFIRMS RETALIATION DATE AND SECTORS — Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs take effect the Tuesday after Labor Day, September 8, 2026, naming steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics as the sectors in scope — matching the roughly $20 billion in US Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods. The specific product list was not published as of this writing; Carney said it would follow in the coming days. See our Canada Section 338 tariff guide. August 22: TRADE TALKS COLLAPSE, CANADA SECTION 338 TARIFF TAKES EFFECT — the three-day pause on the 50% Section 338 tariff expired without a signed deal. A further round of talks in Washington broke down; Prime Minister Mark Carney said last-minute changes to the US proposed terms were 'unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal,' suspended negotiations, and recalled Canada's negotiating team to Ottawa. No proclamation was withdrawn, so the original 50% tariff on Canadian autos, alcohol, dairy, furniture and other named goods took effect automatically at 12:01 a.m. ET August 22 — the first modern use of Section 338. Carney said Canada would retaliate dollar for dollar; the specific list of US goods covered has not yet been published. See our Canada Section 338 tariff guide. August 15: SECTION 201 QUARTZ SAFEGUARD TAKES EFFECT — a four-year Section 201 tariff-rate quota on imported quartz surface products (engineered stone slabs and countertops) took effect: roughly 140 million square feet may enter in year one at 25% duty, with volume above the quarterly allocation dutied at 50%, running through August 2030. Standalone from IEEPA, Section 122, or Section 301 — it stacks on top of whatever base duty otherwise applies. August 13: DRONE TARIFF SIGNED; CARRIER IEEPA REFUNDS CONFIRMED REACHING CONSUMERS — a proclamation imposed Section 232 tariffs on unmanned aircraft systems, effective September 3: 100% on large/thermal-imaging drones and critical components, 25% on most consumer/hobby models; EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, and Taiwan get a reduced 15% cap, UK 10%, China is not on the reduced list. Separately, national wire reporting confirmed FedEx's roughly $800 million in carrier-side IEEPA refunds are now landing with consumers, alongside UPS's ongoing ~$500 million pool and DHL's pass-through. See our drone tariff guide and FedEx/UPS/DHL refund tracker. August 10: DOJ SEEKS TO VACATE IEEPA RELIQUIDATION ORDER — DOJ filed its opening Federal Circuit brief arguing CBP lacks authority to reprocess finally liquidated IEEPA entries absent an individual court order, and that the CIT's order is an impermissible 'universal injunction.' If the Federal Circuit agrees, importers with finally liquidated entries who haven't sued would need to file suit individually rather than rely on the existing administrative path; CAPE refund processing continues under the current order while the appeal is pending. August 6: POLYSILICON SECTION 232 TARIFF ANNOUNCED — a proclamation imposed a 15% Section 232 tariff on polysilicon, ingots, wafers, solar cells, and solar modules, plus minimum import prices, effective December 4, 2026 — separate from and stacking with existing Section 301 rates on Chinese-origin solar goods. August 4: CBP: OVER $100 BILLION IN IEEPA REFUNDS CERTIFIED — a CBP court declaration in Freestyle World, Inc. v. United States put cumulative certified IEEPA refunds (principal plus interest) sent to Treasury at over $100 billion, roughly 60% of the ~$166 billion pool, up from $86.3 billion on July 10; about $1.6 billion remained stuck on missing importer bank details. See our refund update guide. August 3: 25 STATES SUE TO BLOCK SECTION 301 FORCED-LABOR TARIFF — a coalition led by Oregon, Arizona, and California filed suit in the Court of International Trade arguing USTR acted unlawfully by not proving forced-labor findings country-by-country and that the action effectively revives the reciprocal tariffs the Supreme Court struck down. CBP continues collecting the tariff as normal; no ruling yet. See our states-sue guide.
July 2026
July 31: 100% PHARMACEUTICAL TARIFF TAKES EFFECT FOR NAMED COMPANIES — the Section 232 tariff on patented pharmaceuticals and APIs (Proclamation 11020, signed April 2, 2026) hit its first real effective date: the 17 large companies named in the proclamation's Annex III now pay a 100% duty on covered patented drugs and APIs. Companies not named in Annex II or III follow on September 29 (180 days after signing). Companies with an approved Commerce onshoring agreement pay 20% instead of 100%; those that also hold an MFN pricing deal with HHS pay 0% until January 20, 2029. Generics, biosimilars, and orphan drugs remain exempt for now. See our pharma tariff guide. July 24: SECTION 122 EXPIRES; USTR'S SECTION 301 REPLACEMENT TAKES EFFECT THE SAME MOMENT — the 10% Section 122 baseline hit its 150-day statutory limit and lapsed at 12:01 a.m. ET, exactly as scheduled; Congress did not act to extend it. At the same moment, USTR's Section 301 replacement took effect, closing the gap that had been an open question through July 23. The final action is broader than the mid-July proposal: instead of a flat 12.5% on 46 countries, USTR settled on a two-tier structure covering roughly 60 economies (about 99.4% of US imports) — a lower rate for the smaller group of economies found to have at least partial forced-labor import protections in place, and 12.5% for the rest. EU-origin goods are unaffected and remain on the trade deal's 15% ceiling; Section 232 and existing China Section 301 lines are unaffected and can stack on top. See our Section 301 replacement guide and Section 122 playbook, both updated with the confirmed outcome. July 23: SECTION 122 EXPIRES TOMORROW; USTR MISSES ITS SECTION 301 DEADLINE — with one day left before Section 122's 10% baseline hits its 150-day statutory limit, USTR's own July 20 completion deadline for the proposed 12.5% Section 301 replacement (46 countries, drawn from a broader 60-economy forced-labor investigation) has come and gone with no final rule published; an announcement is expected imminently, likely at or near the July 24 handoff. Separately, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) introduced the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act on July 22, which would repeal Section 122 and Section 338 outright and require congressional approval before the President could use Section 301, 201, or 232 — a signal of the same anti-extension momentum already working against Section 122. See our Section 122 playbook for what changes tomorrow. July 22: BRAZIL'S 25% SECTION 301 TARIFF TAKES EFFECT — the tariff went into force as scheduled at 12:01 a.m. ET, filed under new HTS subheading 9903.05.01 (in-transit shipments qualify for a short exemption under 9903.05.02 if loaded before July 22 and entered before July 29). No last-minute delay or court challenge emerged. See our Brazil tariff guide for the full exemption annex. July 20: NEW 50% TARIFF ON CANADA (SECTION 338) — President Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a Depression-era statute never before used this way, imposing a 50% tariff on Canadian autos, alcohol, dairy, furniture, and several other product categories over claims of discriminatory Canadian trade practices. Effective 12:01 a.m. ET August 19, 2026. Excludes energy, potash, Section 232-covered goods, fish, and critical minerals — and critically, it applies even to goods that qualify for 0% under USMCA. See our Canada Section 338 tariff guide. July 20: BRAZIL TARIFF FINALIZED IN FEDERAL REGISTER — USTR's final notice confirms the 25% Section 301 tariff on goods of Brazil, effective July 22, with an exemption annex covering 1,600+ HTSUS subheadings (coffee, beef, orange juice, Brazil nuts, cocoa, iron ore, petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, and ~430 civil-aircraft lines) and confirms the duty does not stack with Brazil's existing 50% Section 232 steel/aluminum tariff. Separate from the 46-country forced-labor Section 301 action, whose own July 20 completion deadline arrived today with no final rule published as of this writing. See our Brazil tariff guide. July 15: CIT MAPS OUT CAPE PHASE 3 RELIQUIDATION — the Court of International Trade signaled it will issue case-specific orders across roughly 3,700 individual IEEPA cases, each directing CBP to reliquidate (without IEEPA duties) the finally liquidated entries of plaintiffs in that case that liquidated more than 80 days ago. It's the clearest confirmation yet that the government's plaintiffs-only reading of Phase 3 eligibility is being implemented case by case — importers without a CIT case aren't covered by these orders. July 14: CAPE PHASE 3 DETAILS EMERGE — CBP confirmed it will have the technical capability to process the roughly $11.4 billion in finally liquidated entries by late July, but the government maintains only importers who filed a protective action at the CIT can be paid; everyone else needs a timely 180-day protest, their own suit, or the pending class-certification motion. July 10: CBP's court declaration puts cumulative IEEPA refunds at $86.3 billion repaid (plus statutory interest), with June the largest month yet at $49.1 billion — roughly half of the $166 billion refund pool. July 1: EU-US TRADE DEAL TAKES EFFECT — most EU-origin goods now face a 15% all-inclusive US tariff ceiling, replacing the 10% Section 122 rate for the EU. The 15% does not stack: goods with MFN rates of 15% or higher pay MFN only. The ceiling applies in lieu of Section 232 for EU autos (27.5% down to 15%), pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors; EU steel and aluminum stay at 50% Section 232. The EU simultaneously eliminated all duties on US industrial goods (US autos to the EU: 10% to 0%). From September 1, aircraft and parts, cork and other unavailable natural resources, and generic pharmaceuticals go to MFN-only treatment. July 1: US DECLINES USMCA RENEWAL — at the agreement's joint-review deadline, USTR Greer announced after a virtual meeting with Mexico and Canada that the US would not agree to renew USMCA in its current form. The agreement remains in force and 0% preferential treatment is unchanged; non-renewal triggers annual reviews for up to ten years, with a July 1, 2036 sunset if no extension is ever agreed. Countdown context for the rest of the month: USTR's Section 301 completion deadline is July 20 (proposed 12.5% duties on 46 countries), Section 122 expires July 24, and the pharma onshoring deadline is July 31.
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June 2026
June 29: CAPE PHASE 2 GOES LIVE — CBP opened Phase 2 of the IEEPA refund tool on schedule, adding reconciliation entries and AD/CVD entries. An estimated 2.8 million additional entries worth roughly $28.7 billion in refunds become claimable, lifting combined Phase 1 + Phase 2 coverage to about $130 billion of the $166 billion pool. June 25: Council of the EU formally adopts the two implementing regulations for the EU-US trade deal, clearing it to take effect July 1. June 18: USTR opens a Section 301 investigation against Germany over persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products — a pharma-pricing pressure track running alongside the July 31 onshoring deadline. June 11: Federal Circuit grants a stay pending appeal in the Section 122 litigation — CBP keeps collecting the 10% global tariff while the appeal proceeds, and the panel found the government showed a sufficient likelihood of success.
May 2026
May 27: EU member states back the deal implementing the tariff elements of the EU-US Joint Statement, setting up final adoption in June. May 20: Council-Parliament agreement struck on the implementing legislation for the EU-US deal — the moment the 15% ceiling moved from framework to timetable. May 7: Court of International Trade rules the 10% Section 122 tariff unlawful in Oregon v. United States / Burlap & Barrel — the challenges brought by state and business plaintiffs arguing the flat tariff isn't applied 'consistently' as the statute requires. Collection continued under a brief administrative stay, later extended by the Federal Circuit's June 11 stay pending appeal.
April 2026
April 17: Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping traffic begins resuming through the strait; Brent crude drops from peak of $118/bbl to approximately $83/bbl. Shipping rates and war risk premiums expected to ease over coming weeks. April 15: US CENTCOM declares Hormuz blockade 'fully implemented.' April 12: Trump announces US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz after Islamabad peace talks between VP Vance and Iranian officials fail to reach agreement. US Navy ordered to prevent all ships from entering or leaving the strait. Brent crude at $118/bbl (peak), diesel at $5.40/gal. Shipping rates spiking as vessels reroute around Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days to transit times. April 11: Section 122 tariff remains at 10% with no changes announced. Congressional debates on tariff extension continue, with no clear consensus on whether to extend, modify, or let the Section 122 tariff expire in July. April 7: Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on opening Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire begins but strait remains effectively closed. Iran continues charging tolls of up to $2 million per vessel transit. USTR announces preliminary findings in Section 301 investigation of Vietnamese currency practices, but stops short of recommending tariffs. April 3: European Commission proposes counter-offer in US-EU tariff negotiations — willing to reduce EU auto tariffs from 10% to 5% in exchange for US reducing Section 122 rate on EU goods. No formal agreement reached. April 1: New quarterly tariff revenue figures released — Q1 2026 collections of $29.4 billion, on pace for approximately $118 billion in annual tariff revenue. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in an estimated 7.5 million barrels/day of oil production due to Hormuz disruption, rising to an estimated 9.1 million b/d.
March 2026
March 20: Steel and aluminum importers report a 15% drop in imports since Section 232 rates doubled to 50%. Domestic steel prices have risen 22% year-over-year. The American Iron and Steel Institute reports domestic production up 8%. March 18: Attack damages Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, taking offline approximately 17% of Qatar's natural gas export capacity. Global LNG prices surge. March 11: IEA member countries agree to release 400 million barrels from emergency petroleum reserves to stabilize oil markets amid the Hormuz disruption. USTR launches new Section 301 investigations targeting China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand on currency manipulation, labor practices, and environmental standards. March 5: Coalition of 24 state attorneys general files lawsuit in the Court of International Trade challenging Section 122 tariffs. March 1: UK-US bilateral trade deal negotiations enter second round in Washington. Key issues: agricultural standards, pharmaceutical pricing, financial services access, and tariff reductions.
February 2026
February 28: US and Israel launch joint strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran responds by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, beginning to charge tolls to select vessels (some paying $2 million per transit). Oil prices begin rapid ascent from $61/bbl toward $118/bbl. The strait normally handles approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade (~20 million barrels/day). February 24: Section 122 tariff takes effect globally. 10% flat rate replaces the variable IEEPA rates. CBP issues guidance on implementation — importers with goods in transit receive a 5-day grace period. February 20: SUPREME COURT RULING — V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States. SCOTUS rules 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. All IEEPA reciprocal tariffs permanently invalidated. Within hours, President Trump signs 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24. Section 122 has a 150-day time limit (expires approximately July 24). February 15: Federal Circuit denies government petition for en banc rehearing on IEEPA tariffs, clearing the path for Supreme Court review. February 10: UK Prime Minister visits Washington; joint statement announces intent to pursue bilateral trade deal. February 1: US-India interim trade agreement takes effect.
January 2026
January 28: Supreme Court agrees to hear V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States on expedited schedule. Oral arguments set for February 12. The case challenges IEEPA tariffs on constitutional grounds. January 15: USTR releases annual trade agenda prioritizing: defending existing tariffs in court, launching new Section 301 investigations, negotiating bilateral deals with UK and Japan, and developing 'permanent tariff framework' to replace IEEPA if struck down. January 10: China tariff truce extended through June 2026 — reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods remain at reduced levels while negotiations continue. Section 301 tariffs unchanged. January 5: New year sees no changes to tariff rates. IEEPA reciprocal tariffs remain in effect pending Supreme Court review. Section 232 tariffs on steel (50%), aluminum (50%), copper (50%), autos (25%), semiconductors (25%), and lumber (10%) all continue unchanged.
Key Developments from Late 2025
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court rules 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, striking them down (Learning Resources v. Trump / V.O.S. Selections). August 29, 2025: Federal Circuit, sitting en banc, affirms the CIT ruling 7-4 that IEEPA tariffs are unlawful; government appeals to the Supreme Court. May 28, 2025: Court of International Trade (CIT) rules in V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States that the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs exceed presidential authority. Tariffs remained in effect pending appeal. Mid-2025: US-China tariff truce — reciprocal rates reduced while negotiations continued; Section 301 tariffs unchanged. June 2025: Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum doubled from 25% to 50%. New Section 232 tariffs imposed on copper (50%), semiconductors (25%), and lumber (10%).
What to Watch: Upcoming Deadlines
July 20, 2026: USTR's completion deadline for the Section 301 investigations launched in March. Proposed: 12.5% Section 301 duties on 46 countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea — the administration's designed replacement for Section 122. July 24, 2026: Section 122 tariff expires under its 150-day statutory limit. If Section 301 tariffs aren't in place by then, imports revert to pre-IEEPA duty rates (MFN plus existing Section 232 and existing China Section 301). EU goods are insulated either way — they moved to the deal's 15% ceiling on July 1. July 31, 2026: Pharma onshoring deadline — major pharmaceutical companies must reach onshoring agreements (which reduce the tariff to 20%) or face the threatened 100% tariff on branded pharmaceutical imports. EU branded pharma is capped at 15% by the trade deal. September 1, 2026: EU carve-outs take effect — aircraft and aircraft parts, cork and other unavailable natural resources, and generic pharmaceuticals from the EU go to MFN-only treatment. November 2026: US-China tariff truce expires. If not renewed, rates on Chinese goods could increase significantly.
How These Changes Affect Your Imports
As of July 2026, your exposure depends on which of three buckets your origin falls into. EU importers: the 15% all-inclusive ceiling is your rate as of July 1 — it replaced the 10% Section 122 layer, it doesn't stack on MFN (goods with MFN at or above 15% pay MFN only), autos dropped from 27.5% to 15%, and steel/aluminum stay at 50% Section 232. Re-run every EU landed cost quoted before July 1 and confirm your broker applied the deal rate on entries filed since. Canada/Mexico importers: nothing changed at the border despite the USMCA non-renewal headline — keep certifying origin and claiming 0% preference. Everyone else: you're in the July 20-24 squeeze. The 10% Section 122 rate expires July 24; USTR's proposed replacement is 12.5% Section 301 on 46 countries including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. Model three scenarios: rates revert to pre-IEEPA levels (Section 301 misses the deadline), 12.5% Section 301 lands on your origin, or a negotiated deal intervenes. Use our scenario simulator to model each outcome, check the tariff rates page for current rates by country, and use the tariff calculator for instant duty estimates.
Key Takeaway
August 2026 closed with the collapse of US-Canada trade talks and the 50% Section 338 tariff taking effect, with Canadian retaliation still to be defined. Combined with new drone and polysilicon Section 232 tariffs, a quartz Section 201 safeguard, and $100 billion-plus in certified IEEPA refunds, the tariff landscape keeps shifting fast. Bookmark this page for the latest updates, and use our calculator and country pages to stay on top of rates that affect your imports.
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