2026 keeps rewriting the US tariff rulebook — and July is the busiest month yet. The EU-US trade deal's 15% all-inclusive ceiling took effect July 1, the US declined to renew USMCA at the joint review the same day (the agreement stays in force), the 10% Section 122 global tariff expires July 24, and USTR faces a July 20 deadline to complete the Section 301 investigations meant to replace it. Add the July 31 pharma onshoring deadline and this is the most consequential three-week stretch since the February SCOTUS ruling. This page tracks every major development, organized chronologically. Bookmark it — we update as news breaks.
July 2026
July 1: EU-US TRADE DEAL TAKES EFFECT — most EU-origin goods now face a 15% all-inclusive US tariff ceiling, replacing the 10% Section 122 rate for the EU. The 15% does not stack: goods with MFN rates of 15% or higher pay MFN only. The ceiling applies in lieu of Section 232 for EU autos (27.5% down to 15%), pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors; EU steel and aluminum stay at 50% Section 232. The EU simultaneously eliminated all duties on US industrial goods (US autos to the EU: 10% to 0%). From September 1, aircraft and parts, cork and other unavailable natural resources, and generic pharmaceuticals go to MFN-only treatment. July 1: US DECLINES USMCA RENEWAL — at the agreement's joint-review deadline, USTR Greer announced after a virtual meeting with Mexico and Canada that the US would not agree to renew USMCA in its current form. The agreement remains in force and 0% preferential treatment is unchanged; non-renewal triggers annual reviews for up to ten years, with a July 1, 2036 sunset if no extension is ever agreed. Countdown context for the rest of the month: USTR's Section 301 completion deadline is July 20 (proposed 12.5% duties on 46 countries), Section 122 expires July 24, and the pharma onshoring deadline is July 31.
June 2026
June 29: CAPE PHASE 2 GOES LIVE — CBP opened Phase 2 of the IEEPA refund tool on schedule, adding reconciliation entries and AD/CVD entries. An estimated 2.8 million additional entries worth roughly $28.7 billion in refunds become claimable, lifting combined Phase 1 + Phase 2 coverage to about $130 billion of the $166 billion pool. June 25: Council of the EU formally adopts the two implementing regulations for the EU-US trade deal, clearing it to take effect July 1. June 18: USTR opens a Section 301 investigation against Germany over persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products — a pharma-pricing pressure track running alongside the July 31 onshoring deadline. June 11: Federal Circuit grants a stay pending appeal in the Section 122 litigation — CBP keeps collecting the 10% global tariff while the appeal proceeds, and the panel found the government showed a sufficient likelihood of success.
May 2026
May 27: EU member states back the deal implementing the tariff elements of the EU-US Joint Statement, setting up final adoption in June. May 20: Council-Parliament agreement struck on the implementing legislation for the EU-US deal — the moment the 15% ceiling moved from framework to timetable. May 7: Court of International Trade rules the 10% Section 122 tariff unlawful in Oregon v. United States / Burlap & Barrel — the challenges brought by state and business plaintiffs arguing the flat tariff isn't applied 'consistently' as the statute requires. Collection continued under a brief administrative stay, later extended by the Federal Circuit's June 11 stay pending appeal.
April 2026
April 17: Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping traffic begins resuming through the strait; Brent crude drops from peak of $118/bbl to approximately $83/bbl. Shipping rates and war risk premiums expected to ease over coming weeks. April 15: US CENTCOM declares Hormuz blockade 'fully implemented.' April 12: Trump announces US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz after Islamabad peace talks between VP Vance and Iranian officials fail to reach agreement. US Navy ordered to prevent all ships from entering or leaving the strait. Brent crude at $118/bbl (peak), diesel at $5.40/gal. Shipping rates spiking as vessels reroute around Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days to transit times. April 11: Section 122 tariff remains at 10% with no changes announced. Congressional debates on tariff extension continue, with no clear consensus on whether to extend, modify, or let the Section 122 tariff expire in July. April 7: Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on opening Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire begins but strait remains effectively closed. Iran continues charging tolls of up to $2 million per vessel transit. USTR announces preliminary findings in Section 301 investigation of Vietnamese currency practices, but stops short of recommending tariffs. April 3: European Commission proposes counter-offer in US-EU tariff negotiations — willing to reduce EU auto tariffs from 10% to 5% in exchange for US reducing Section 122 rate on EU goods. No formal agreement reached. April 1: New quarterly tariff revenue figures released — Q1 2026 collections of $29.4 billion, on pace for approximately $118 billion in annual tariff revenue. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in an estimated 7.5 million barrels/day of oil production due to Hormuz disruption, rising to an estimated 9.1 million b/d.
March 2026
March 20: Steel and aluminum importers report a 15% drop in imports since Section 232 rates doubled to 50%. Domestic steel prices have risen 22% year-over-year. The American Iron and Steel Institute reports domestic production up 8%. March 18: Attack damages Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, taking offline approximately 17% of Qatar's natural gas export capacity. Global LNG prices surge. March 11: IEA member countries agree to release 400 million barrels from emergency petroleum reserves to stabilize oil markets amid the Hormuz disruption. USTR launches new Section 301 investigations targeting China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand on currency manipulation, labor practices, and environmental standards. March 5: Coalition of 24 state attorneys general files lawsuit in the Court of International Trade challenging Section 122 tariffs. March 1: UK-US bilateral trade deal negotiations enter second round in Washington. Key issues: agricultural standards, pharmaceutical pricing, financial services access, and tariff reductions.
February 2026
February 28: US and Israel launch joint strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran responds by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, beginning to charge tolls to select vessels (some paying $2 million per transit). Oil prices begin rapid ascent from $61/bbl toward $118/bbl. The strait normally handles approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade (~20 million barrels/day). February 24: Section 122 tariff takes effect globally. 10% flat rate replaces the variable IEEPA rates. CBP issues guidance on implementation — importers with goods in transit receive a 5-day grace period. February 20: SUPREME COURT RULING — V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States. SCOTUS rules 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. All IEEPA reciprocal tariffs permanently invalidated. Within hours, President Trump signs 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24. Section 122 has a 150-day time limit (expires approximately July 24). February 15: Federal Circuit denies government petition for en banc rehearing on IEEPA tariffs, clearing the path for Supreme Court review. February 10: UK Prime Minister visits Washington; joint statement announces intent to pursue bilateral trade deal. February 1: US-India interim trade agreement takes effect.
January 2026
January 28: Supreme Court agrees to hear V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States on expedited schedule. Oral arguments set for February 12. The case challenges IEEPA tariffs on constitutional grounds. January 15: USTR releases annual trade agenda prioritizing: defending existing tariffs in court, launching new Section 301 investigations, negotiating bilateral deals with UK and Japan, and developing 'permanent tariff framework' to replace IEEPA if struck down. January 10: China tariff truce extended through June 2026 — reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods remain at reduced levels while negotiations continue. Section 301 tariffs unchanged. January 5: New year sees no changes to tariff rates. IEEPA reciprocal tariffs remain in effect pending Supreme Court review. Section 232 tariffs on steel (50%), aluminum (50%), copper (50%), autos (25%), semiconductors (25%), and lumber (10%) all continue unchanged.
Key Developments from Late 2025
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court rules 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, striking them down (Learning Resources v. Trump / V.O.S. Selections). August 29, 2025: Federal Circuit, sitting en banc, affirms the CIT ruling 7-4 that IEEPA tariffs are unlawful; government appeals to the Supreme Court. May 28, 2025: Court of International Trade (CIT) rules in V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. United States that the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs exceed presidential authority. Tariffs remained in effect pending appeal. Mid-2025: US-China tariff truce — reciprocal rates reduced while negotiations continued; Section 301 tariffs unchanged. June 2025: Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum doubled from 25% to 50%. New Section 232 tariffs imposed on copper (50%), semiconductors (25%), and lumber (10%).
What to Watch: Upcoming Deadlines
July 20, 2026: USTR's completion deadline for the Section 301 investigations launched in March. Proposed: 12.5% Section 301 duties on 46 countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea — the administration's designed replacement for Section 122. July 24, 2026: Section 122 tariff expires under its 150-day statutory limit. If Section 301 tariffs aren't in place by then, imports revert to pre-IEEPA duty rates (MFN plus existing Section 232 and existing China Section 301). EU goods are insulated either way — they moved to the deal's 15% ceiling on July 1. July 31, 2026: Pharma onshoring deadline — major pharmaceutical companies must reach onshoring agreements (which reduce the tariff to 20%) or face the threatened 100% tariff on branded pharmaceutical imports. EU branded pharma is capped at 15% by the trade deal. September 1, 2026: EU carve-outs take effect — aircraft and aircraft parts, cork and other unavailable natural resources, and generic pharmaceuticals from the EU go to MFN-only treatment. November 2026: US-China tariff truce expires. If not renewed, rates on Chinese goods could increase significantly.
How These Changes Affect Your Imports
As of July 2026, your exposure depends on which of three buckets your origin falls into. EU importers: the 15% all-inclusive ceiling is your rate as of July 1 — it replaced the 10% Section 122 layer, it doesn't stack on MFN (goods with MFN at or above 15% pay MFN only), autos dropped from 27.5% to 15%, and steel/aluminum stay at 50% Section 232. Re-run every EU landed cost quoted before July 1 and confirm your broker applied the deal rate on entries filed since. Canada/Mexico importers: nothing changed at the border despite the USMCA non-renewal headline — keep certifying origin and claiming 0% preference. Everyone else: you're in the July 20-24 squeeze. The 10% Section 122 rate expires July 24; USTR's proposed replacement is 12.5% Section 301 on 46 countries including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. Model three scenarios: rates revert to pre-IEEPA levels (Section 301 misses the deadline), 12.5% Section 301 lands on your origin, or a negotiated deal intervenes. Use our scenario simulator to model each outcome, check the tariff rates page for current rates by country, and use the tariff calculator for instant duty estimates.
Key Takeaway
July 2026 is the pivot point of the year: the EU's 15% ceiling is live, USMCA enters annual reviews after the US declined renewal, Section 122 expires July 24, and USTR's proposed 12.5% Section 301 duties on 46 countries are due by July 20. Bookmark this page for the latest updates, and use our calculator and country pages to stay on top of rates that affect your imports.
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