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UPDATE: Section 122 tariff (10%) in effect since Feb 24 — expires ~July 24 (~126 days). 24 states challenge in court (March 5). USTR launches new Section 301 probes (March 11). EU trade deal vote imminent. Full analysis →
Tariffs Tool

Tariff Scenario Simulator

What if tariff rates go up — or down? Use the slider to model rate changes and see exactly how they would affect your import costs. Try pre-built scenarios like China at 60%, Universal 25%, or All Tariffs Removed.

Current effective rate:35%(10% Section 122 + 25% Section 301)
35%
0%50%100%150%200%
Current Duty
$35,000.00
at 35%
Projected Duty
$35,000.00
at 35%
Dollar Difference
$0.00
% Impact
0.0%
Per Unit Impact
Enter units above

Try a Scenario

Scenario Comparison

Click any row to load that scenario into the simulator above.

ScenarioApplies ToCurrentScenarioCurrent DutyScenario DutyImpact
Section 122 ExpiresAll Imports (Avg)10.7%0%$10,700.00$0.00-$10,700.00
Congress Extends 10%All Imports (Avg)10.7%10%$10,700.00$10,000.00-$700.00
Congress Passes 25%All Imports (Avg)10.7%25%$10,700.00$25,000.00+$14,300.00
China at 60%🇨🇳 China35%60%$35,000.00$60,000.00+$25,000.00
USMCA Eliminated🇲🇽 Mexico0%13%$0.00$13,000.00+$13,000.00
Universal 25%All Imports (Avg)10.7%25%$10,700.00$25,000.00+$14,300.00
All Tariffs RemovedAll Imports (Avg)10.7%0%$10,700.00$0.00-$10,700.00

How to Use This Tool

1. Choose a Country

Select the country of origin for your imports, or choose "All Imports" to see the average impact across all US trading partners.

2. Enter Your Numbers

Input your annual import value in USD. Optionally add the number of units to see the per-unit cost impact.

3. Adjust the Rate

Drag the slider or click a pre-built scenario. Results update instantly — watch the colors shift from green (savings) to red (cost increase).

Why Scenario Planning Matters for Importers

US tariff policy has shifted rapidly since 2025. Reciprocal tariffs, Section 301 escalations, and trade agreement renegotiations can change effective rates with little notice. Businesses that model potential rate changes in advance can make better decisions about sourcing, pricing, and inventory.

This simulator helps you quantify the financial impact of hypothetical tariff changes. Whether you're evaluating the risk of further China tariff escalation, exploring what would happen if USMCA preferences were eliminated, or building a case for supply chain diversification, the numbers are available instantly.

For current tariff rates by country, visit our tariff rates directory. To calculate actual duties on a specific shipment, use the tariff calculator. For total landed cost including freight and insurance, see the landed cost calculator.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the tariff scenario simulator work?
Select a country of origin (or 'All Imports'), enter your annual import value, and use the slider to set a hypothetical tariff rate from 0% to 200%. The tool instantly calculates the difference between your current duty and the projected duty under the new rate, showing the dollar impact, percentage change, and per-unit cost difference. You can also click one of our pre-built scenarios to model specific policy proposals.
What happens if US tariffs on China increase to 60%?
If the combined US tariff on Chinese imports rose to 60%, it would represent a significant increase from the current ~45% effective rate (20% reciprocal + 25% Section 301). On $100,000 of imports, annual duty would jump from $45,000 to $60,000 — an additional $15,000 or 33% increase. Many importers would likely accelerate supply chain diversification to countries like Vietnam, India, or Mexico.
How would removing all tariffs affect import costs?
Eliminating all US import tariffs would save importers the full duty amount currently paid. For example, on $100,000 of Chinese goods at the current ~45% rate, the savings would be $45,000 per year. While complete tariff removal is unlikely, using the simulator helps quantify best-case and worst-case scenarios for budget planning and supply chain strategy.

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