What the Trump-Xi Deal Actually Did
- Fentanyl tariff: Cut from 20% to 10%
- 24% reciprocal tariff: Suspended through November 10, 2026
- Average US tariff on Chinese goods: Now 47.5% (still 15x pre-2025)
- Section 301 exclusions: Extended through Nov 10
- Section 232: Unchanged (steel, aluminum, autos)
- Section 122: Still being collected pending appeal
What the Deal Did NOT Do:
- Did NOT refund 2025 IEEPA tariffs
- Did NOT pause CAPE refund processing
- Did NOT change the $58 billion owed to importers of Chinese goods
- Did NOT extend the 80-day Phase 1 refund window
“The Trump-Xi deal addresses tomorrow’s tariffs. Your refund for yesterday’s tariffs is still sitting in CBP’s queue. Two separate fights. Both your money.”
Calculate Your 2025 China Refund — The Deal Doesn't Affect This Money
60 seconds. Free. Estimate emailed in 5 minutes.
Where did you import from?
Pick the country — we’ll calculate your refund rate.
On Thursday, May 15, 2026, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings in Beijing with a sweeping framework agreement the White House called 'historic.' The fentanyl tariff dropped from 20% to 10%. The 24% reciprocal tariff stays suspended through November 10, 2026. Section 301 tariff exclusions extended to the same date. China committed to 200 Boeing aircraft, hundreds of billions in US energy and goods purchases, restored soybean buying at 25 million metric tons annually, suspended new rare earth export controls, and joint commitment to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. It is a real deal. But for US importers who paid IEEPA tariffs in 2025 on Chinese goods, nothing meaningful changed about your refund. $58 billion sits in CBP's queue. The deal addresses tomorrow's tariffs. Your refund covers yesterday's. The next six months are the cleanest political window importers will see to get clean refunds processed.
TL;DR — What the Trump-Xi Deal Actually Did (and Did Not Do)
WHAT THE TRUMP-XI DEAL ACTUALLY DID (May 15, 2026):
- Fentanyl tariff: Cut from 20% to 10%
- 24% reciprocal tariff: Suspended through November 10, 2026
- Average US tariff on Chinese goods now: 47.5% (down from peak, still elevated)
- Section 301 tariff exclusions: Extended through November 10, 2026
- Section 232 tariffs: Unchanged (steel, aluminum, autos still hit)
- Section 122 (10% global): Still being collected pending appeal
WHAT THE DEAL DID NOT DO:
- Did NOT refund 2025 IEEPA tariffs
- Did NOT pause CAPE refund processing
- Did NOT change the $58 billion legally owed to importers of Chinese goods
- Did NOT extend the 80-day Phase 1 refund window
"The Trump-Xi deal addresses tomorrow's tariffs. Your refund for yesterday's tariffs is still sitting in CBP's queue. Two separate fights. Both your money."
What Just Happened in Beijing
On Thursday, May 15, 2026, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings in Beijing with a sweeping framework agreement that the White House called "historic."
The deal cuts the US fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese imports from 20% to 10%. It extends the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff through November 10, 2026. Section 301 tariff exclusions get extended to the same date.
In return, China agreed to:
- Purchase 200 Boeing aircraft
- Buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US energy and goods
- Resume soybean purchases at 25 million metric tons annually through 2028
- Suspend new rare earth export controls
- Open markets to additional US agricultural exports
- Cooperate on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open during the Iran war
It's a real deal. But for US importers who paid IEEPA tariffs in 2025, nothing meaningful changed about your refund.
The Numbers That Actually Matter
US TARIFF ON CHINESE GOODS — TIMELINE:
- Before Trump's first term: 3.1%
- End of Trump first term: ~19%
- Liberation Day 2025 peak: 145%
- After May 2025 truce: ~30%
- Post-Beijing summit (today): 47.5%
KEY POINT: Even after the new deal, US tariffs on Chinese imports remain 15x higher than before Trump's first term. The "lowering" is real but the baseline is still elevated.
WHAT YOUR 2025 IEEPA REFUND LOOKS LIKE:
- $1 million in Chinese imports at 35% IEEPA rate = $350,000 refund
- $5 million in Chinese imports = $1.75 million refund
- $10 million in Chinese imports = $3.5 million refund
- Plus statutory interest from original entry dates
THE NATIONAL POOL:
- $58 billion in IEEPA refunds owed on Chinese imports alone
- $166 billion total IEEPA refund pool (all countries)
- Only 21% of CAPE submissions have been accepted to date
- First refunds paid May 11 — proof the system works
Why the Deal Actually Makes Filing MORE Urgent
"The deal extends tariff stability through November. That tells you exactly how long CBP has to process refunds before the next political shift. The window has a deadline."
Here's what most importers will miss: the November 10, 2026 date isn't just a tariff suspension deadline. It's a political checkpoint.
Before November 10:
- The Trump administration needs the deal to look successful
- CBP has political cover to process IEEPA refunds quickly
- No new tariff actions likely against China
- Status quo holds across all major schemes
After November 10:
- Deal can be renegotiated, extended, or abandoned
- New tariff actions become possible
- Political environment could shift dramatically
- Section 122 expiration July 24 already passed by then
- Section 122 litigation likely resolved one way or another
The next 6 months are the cleanest political window importers will see for refund processing. Whatever happens after November depends on US-China relations, election cycles, and litigation outcomes nobody can predict.
60-Second Refund Calculator — Use the Window While It's Open
$58B in China IEEPA refunds still owed. Find out your share.
Where did you import from?
Pick the country — we’ll calculate your refund rate.
The Four-Way Tariff Stack Is Still Real
Even with the new deal, importers of Chinese goods still face a complex tariff stack on most products:
CURRENT STACK ON TYPICAL CHINESE IMPORT:
- Base MFN duty: Varies by product
- Section 301: 25% on most categories (still active)
- Section 232: Up to 50% on steel/aluminum (still active)
- Section 122: 10% global (paused in appeal but still collected)
- Fentanyl tariff: 10% (just lowered from 20%)
- Total typical landed tariff: 45-95% depending on product
The Beijing deal addressed two of these layers — fentanyl down 10 points, reciprocal suspended. The other layers stayed in place.
For importers, the math gets even more interesting: while you continue paying these tariffs going forward, your 2025 IEEPA tariffs are 100% refundable because the Supreme Court ruled them unconstitutional in February.
What the Boeing Deal Tells You
China's commitment to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft is more than a trade headline. It's a signal about how seriously both sides are committed to the framework.
Boeing aircraft purchases happen on multi-year delivery schedules. A 200-plane order locks in commercial relationships through 2030 or beyond. Neither side makes that commitment if they expect imminent collapse of the deal.
For importers, this is the cleanest stability signal possible. The next 12-18 months of US-China trade policy is the most predictable it's been in years. Use that predictability to clean up your past tariff exposure now — because the next disruption is always coming.
What to Do This Week
IF YOU IMPORTED FROM CHINA IN 2025:
- Calculate your IEEPA refund (free, 60 seconds)
- Verify ACE Portal account and ACH banking setup
- Pull entry summaries for April 2025 - February 2026
- File CAPE Declaration before November 10 political checkpoint
- For refunds over $250K: get professional pre-filing audit
IF YOU ALSO PAID SECTION 122 (since Feb 24):
- Document every Section 122 entry separately
- File CBP protests within 180 days of liquidation
- Monitor Federal Circuit appeal (May 19 brief deadline)
- For Section 122 exposure over $500K: engage trade counsel
REGARDLESS OF DEAL STATUS:
- Review contracts for tariff pass-through language
- Plan for refund tax treatment with your accountant
- Coordinate with customs broker on filing strategy
- Track all tariff-related entries in centralized system
The Bigger Strategic Picture
"Two of Trump's three biggest tariff weapons have been ruled illegal in 90 days. The Beijing deal addresses one of the active programs. Your refund position covers what's already been collected. Three separate plays — all in your favor."
The Trump-Xi deal is real news. Tariffs on Chinese imports are coming down. Trade relations are stabilizing through November 2026.
Your 2025 IEEPA refund is still owed. $58 billion sits in CBP's queue waiting for Chinese-import IORs to file clean claims.
Section 122 refunds remain in legal limbo. Federal Circuit appeal pending, but the pattern from IEEPA suggests refunds will eventually flow.
The combined opportunity: Past refunds claimed + future tariffs reduced + Section 122 rights preserved = the strongest financial position importers have had since the trade war began.
The Beijing deal didn't take anything from you. It just made the timing of your refund action more strategic.
Key Takeaway
On May 15, 2026, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded two days of Beijing meetings with a sweeping framework agreement. The fentanyl tariff fell from 20% to 10%. The 24% reciprocal tariff stays suspended through November 10, 2026. The average US tariff on Chinese goods is now 47.5% — real progress, but still 15 times its pre-2025 baseline. China committed to 200 Boeing aircraft, restored soybean purchases, and joint cooperation on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. None of that changes the $58 billion in 2025 IEEPA tariffs already paid on Chinese imports that is legally refundable through CBP's CAPE portal. The deal addresses tomorrow's tariffs. Your refund covers yesterday's. The November 10 date is a political checkpoint — the cleanest six-month window importers will see for refund processing before the next political shift. File IEEPA refunds now, preserve Section 122 rights, and use the window while it's open.
The Beijing deal didn’t take anything from you. Use the window while it’s open.
$58 billion in 2025 China IEEPA refunds remains legally owed. The next 6 months are the cleanest political window importers will see before November 10.
See also: Section 122 pattern repeating IEEPA · Section 122 ruled illegal · Iran war Hormuz impact · Trump-Xi meeting refund impact