The government has roughly 43 days to appeal Judge Eaton's IEEPA refund order to the Federal Circuit. The deadline lands around June 7, 2026. Most trade attorneys expect them to file. If they do — and the Federal Circuit grants a stay — refund processing could halt mid-stream. CAPE opened on April 20. Portal congestion is already pushing acceptance dates back. The 60-90 day refund clock starts at acceptance, not submission. Every week you wait pushes your refund deeper into uncertain legal territory.
The June 7 Deadline
Judge Eaton's IEEPA refund order at the Court of International Trade is appealable to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals. The government's window to file closes around June 7, 2026.
Legal practitioners widely expect the appeal. Most expect the filing once CAPE is operational and the CIT lifts its current suspension of the underlying order. The trade bar is treating this as a question of timing, not whether.
The Trump v. CASA Argument
The government's argument will draw on Trump v. CASA, Inc., the 2025 Supreme Court ruling that curtailed nationwide injunctions. The argument: the CIT cannot issue relief that extends to ALL importers — only to those who actually filed suit.
Judge Eaton's order concluded the CIT's unique statutory grant of nationwide jurisdiction distinguishes it from regular district courts. That distinction is genuinely open. No appellate court has resolved it. The Federal Circuit gets the first crack.
What a Stay Looks Like
If the Federal Circuit issues a stay pending appeal, refund processing could halt mid-stream. CAPE could keep accepting submissions while CBP holds payments. Or CBP could pause acceptance entirely. Neither option is good for cash flow.
Companies that have already filed and received acceptance before any stay would likely be protected. Once an entry is reliquidated and the refund obligation is recorded, clawing it back becomes legally and practically harder. Companies still in the validation queue might not be.
The Acceptance Date Is the Line That Matters
The 60-90 day refund clock starts at ACCEPTANCE, not submission. Submission gets you in the queue. Acceptance starts the clock.
Baker Tilly reported portal congestion on April 23. High volumes are slowing uploads. Data formatting issues are creating friction before submission even occurs. Acceptance is running behind submission by 2-4 weeks during the launch surge.
File today: submitted into a congested portal, accepted in roughly two weeks, refund mid-July to mid-August. File in May: accepted late May, refund August to September. File after a June 7 government appeal: unknown — potentially delayed by court proceedings.
The 80-Day Cliff for Late January Entries
Phase 1 covers unliquidated entries plus entries finalized within 80 days. Late January 2026 entries are bumping that window now.
An entry liquidated January 30 hits day 80 on April 20 — the day CAPE opened. February 5 hits day 80 on April 26. February 15 ages out May 6.
If you wait, those entries fall out of Phase 1 eligibility entirely. They go to Phase 2 — no announced date — or formal protest under 19 U.S.C. § 1514, a separate process with its own requirements.
Entries After February 24 — A Separate Refund
CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24, 2026. Any IEEPA duties paid on entries filed on or after that date should not have been collected at all.
Those are separately refundable. They follow a different path than CAPE Phase 1 — they're CBP collection-error claims, not invalidated-tariff refunds. Pull those entries out and process them through your broker.
And Post Summary Corrections can no longer be used to request IEEPA refunds. CAPE is the exclusive mechanism. PSCs filed for IEEPA refunds get rejected and burn time.
ACH Setup Is the Quietest Killer
ACH bank enrollment is a manual setup step. It does NOT happen automatically when you create an ACE account. You must specifically add bank details under the Importer sub-account in ACE.
CBP issued no paper refund checks since February 6, 2026. If you don't have ACH set up, you cannot receive your refund regardless of how clean your filing is. The cleanest declaration in the queue is worth zero without a bank account on file.
Confirm enrollment before you upload a single CAPE Declaration.
Private Equity and the Tax Angle
Baker Tilly specifically called out private equity firms as pursuing duty recovery strategies. PE-backed importers should coordinate with portfolio company management this week. This is a balance sheet event, not just an operations task.
The refund also has tax implications. It may be treated as income or a COGS reduction depending on how the original tariffs were booked, affecting 2026 financials. Talk to your CPA before the refund hits, not after — the tax treatment can move materially based on accounting choices made now.
What to Do This Week
Five things, in order.
1. Set up ACE Portal access today if you don't have it. Not next week.
2. Add ACH bank details manually to your Importer sub-account. It does not auto-populate from anywhere.
3. Pull every entry number from April 5, 2025 through February 23, 2026 that paid IEEPA duties — from your broker, from ACE, from your 7501s.
4. Check every entry for HTS accuracy before submitting. Data mismatches trigger manual review and bounce you out of the automated queue.
5. Submit as soon as your data is clean. Not after June 7.
Key Takeaway
The refund window is real. The money is real. The legal and logistical risks are also real. The importers getting paid first are the ones who filed clean, filed fast, and got acceptance before the summer appeal circus begins. File before June 7 with clean data and verified ACH and you're in the safe pile. File after, or file with mismatched HTS codes and no bank on file, and you're betting on outcomes nobody can predict.
Refunds this size require careful CAPE filing
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