The China Tariff Situation Right Now
- Trump traveling to China this week for trade negotiations with Xi Jinping
- $58 billion in IEEPA tariffs collected on Chinese imports in 2025 — already legally refundable
- 35% IEEPA reciprocal rate previously applied to most Chinese imports
- 10% Section 122 still being collected from most importers (ruled unlawful May 7)
- 25% Section 301 tariffs on many Chinese goods (still active)
- Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos from China (still active)
- CAPE refund portal for IEEPA refunds — open since April 20
- First refunds confirmed paid May 11
Key point: Whatever Trump and Xi agree to this week affects FUTURE tariffs. Your refund for 2025 IEEPA duties is already locked in.
“Whatever happens at the negotiating table this week, $58 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds for Chinese imports is already owed. That money is yours — if you claim it.”
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President Trump is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, with US-China trade tensions at their highest point since the 2025 trade war. Search interest in US China tariffs, the Trump Xi summit, and a possible China tariff deal is about to spike — whether the news breaks positive, negative, or in deadlock. For US importers, the most important fact about this week is the one no one in Beijing is talking about: $58 billion in IEEPA tariffs on Chinese imports paid in 2025 is already legally refundable. The Trump-Xi meeting affects future tariffs. It does not affect what CBP already owes you for last year's duties.
What's Actually on the Table in Beijing
President Trump is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, with US-China trade tensions hitting their highest point since the 2025 trade war. What's being negotiated — and what isn't — matters enormously for US importers.
On the table:
- Section 301 tariff levels on Chinese imports (currently 25%)
- Trump's threatened 25% secondary tariff on countries doing business with Iran (China is Iran's largest trading partner)
- Tech transfer and IP protections
- Agricultural purchase commitments
- Fentanyl precursor enforcement
NOT on the table:
- Your already-paid 2025 IEEPA tariffs (those are already legally refundable)
- Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum (still apply)
- Existing CAPE refund processing (continues regardless)
The distinction matters: everything being negotiated this week affects future cost. Everything off the table is the money already owed back to you.
Three Scenarios — And What Each Means for Importers
Trade negotiations rarely deliver clean outcomes. For US importers, the right question this week isn't whether a deal happens — it's what each plausible outcome does to landed costs and refund opportunities.
SCENARIO 1: A DEAL HAPPENS
If Trump and Xi announce a trade framework, the most likely terms include reduction of Section 301 tariffs to a 10-15% range (currently 25%), Chinese commitment to increased US agricultural purchases, phase-down of secondary Iran tariffs on China, and IP protection commitments.
What changes for importers: Future Chinese imports get cheaper. Going forward.
What DOESN'T change: Your 2025 IEEPA refund is still owed. Your Section 122 exposure is still tracked. Your Section 301 payments through 2025 remain on the table for separate legal challenge.
SCENARIO 2: TALKS STALL
If negotiations drag without resolution — the most common outcome historically — status quo tariff rates remain:
- Section 301: 25% on most Chinese imports
- Section 232: 50% on Chinese steel and aluminum
- Section 122: 10% global tariff (under appeal after the May 7 CIT ruling)
- IEEPA refunds: continue processing through CAPE
For importers, stalled talks mean continued high landed costs with no near-term relief. Every existing refund opportunity matters more.
SCENARIO 3: ESCALATION
If talks collapse, Trump has threatened 25% additional tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. China would be the primary target, given its role as Iran's largest trading partner.
Potential new tariff stack on Chinese imports:
- 25% Section 301 (existing)
- 10% Section 122 (existing)
- 50% Section 232 on steel/aluminum (existing)
- 25% NEW Iran-secondary tariff (potential)
- Total stack on some products could exceed 100%
In this scenario, importers without refund cushions from 2025 face the worst exposure of any trade environment since the trade wars began.
The Bigger Picture — $58 Billion Already Owed on China
More IEEPA tariff revenue came from Chinese imports than any other source — 40-65% of monthly IEEPA collections throughout 2025.
China was the largest single source of unconstitutional IEEPA tariff revenue:
- $58 billion estimated IEEPA collections on Chinese imports (2025)
- 35% IEEPA reciprocal rate applied to most Chinese goods
- 53 million entries affected across all source countries — China the plurality
- $100,000 in Chinese imports at 35% = $35,000 refund owed
Yet only 21% of CAPE refund submissions have been accepted. 79% of importers are still stuck — either with rejected claims or unfiled cases altogether.
This isn't a future problem. This is money sitting in a CBP queue right now.
The BRICS Complication Nobody Is Discussing
While Trump-Xi talks dominate headlines, the BRICS coalition (Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, UAE, Russia, South Africa) is reshaping global trade flows in parallel.
Each BRICS member is now navigating its own US tariff stack — and each has importers who paid IEEPA tariffs they can now reclaim:
- China: $58B in refundable IEEPA duties
- India: Estimated $12B refundable (18% rate)
- Russia: Russian oil purchases triggered secondary tariffs on India and others
- Brazil: Section 301 forced-labor investigation ongoing since March 12
For US importers sourcing from any BRICS country in 2025, the refund opportunity is significant. The Trump-Xi meeting this week is just one node in a much bigger reshaping of US trade.
What the Courts Have Already Decided
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. $166 billion becomes refundable nationwide — including the $58 billion from China.
May 7, 2026: Court of International Trade rules Section 122 tariffs unlawful. Relief is limited to 3 plaintiffs (Burlap & Barrel, Basic Fun!, the State of Washington), but the legal framework now exists for nationwide challenge. Government appealed May 8.
Pending: Federal Circuit appeals on both IEEPA and Section 122. Potential Supreme Court review. Section 301 challenges in trade court.
Two of Trump's three major tariff schemes have been ruled illegal by US courts in 90 days. Whatever happens in Beijing this week, those court rulings stand.
Your refund rights are protected by judicial order, not political negotiation.
Find Out What CBP Owes You — Whatever Happens in Beijing
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Why Most Importers Will Miss This
Here's the brutal truth: most US importers won't claim their refunds in time.
The numbers from CBP's April 28 court filing:
- 75,306 declarations filed
- 21% accepted
- 2.1 million entries rejected outright
- 80-day Phase 1 window still running on liquidated entries
For Chinese imports specifically — the highest-rate, highest-volume category — refund opportunities are slipping away every day. The importers who file clean, file fast, and file early are getting paid. Everyone else is watching their window close.
What to Do Before Trump Returns
THIS WEEK (regardless of Beijing news):
- Calculate your China import refund — 60-second tool, free
- Verify ACE Portal account — refunds can't be paid without ACH banking enrolled
- Pull your entry summary records for Chinese imports April 2025 – February 2026
- Document any tariff stacking (Section 232 + IEEPA + Section 301 combinations)
FOR REFUNDS OVER $250,000:
- Stop trying to DIY this — rejection at scale costs more than professional filing
- Engage a licensed customs broker partner for clean filing
- Consider trade attorney for Section 122 and Section 301 preservation
- Coordinate with your tax team on refund treatment (income vs. COGS adjustment)
MONITOR THIS WEEK:
- Trump-Xi joint statement (whatever they announce)
- Federal Circuit appeals progress on IEEPA and Section 122 rulings
- CBP weekly status updates on CAPE refund processing
- Section 301 review timeline (could expand or contract)
The Closing Argument
Every dollar you paid in 2025 China IEEPA tariffs is legally refundable. The Trump-Xi meeting this week doesn't change that. Your inaction does.
The deal happens — your past refund is still owed.
The talks stall — your past refund is still owed.
The talks collapse — your past refund matters more than ever.
$58 billion in Chinese import refunds. $166 billion total. The window is open. May 11 proved the money is real — it hit bank accounts this week. Are you in the line, or are you watching?
Key Takeaway
Trump meets Xi in Beijing this week. Whatever they announce — a framework deal, stalled talks, or escalation — affects future tariff levels on Chinese imports. It does not affect the $58 billion in IEEPA tariffs already paid on Chinese imports in 2025, which is legally refundable through CBP's CAPE portal. Two of three Trump tariff schemes have already been ruled illegal by US courts in 90 days. The first refunds confirmed paid this week. For importers with Chinese import exposure in 2025 — the highest-rate, highest-volume IEEPA category — the refund window is open, the 80-day Phase 1 clock is running on each liquidated entry, and the importers who file clean are getting paid first. Whatever the news from Beijing, the refund is already yours. Claim it.
Whatever happens in Beijing, your refund is already yours.
$58B in IEEPA refunds on Chinese imports is legally owed. Calculate yours in 60 seconds, or get help filing for refunds over $250K.
See also: Section 122 ruled illegal · Iran-secondary tariff exposure · full China tariff stack