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Two days. That's how long until the first IEEPA tariff refunds appear in importer bank accounts. May 12 is when Judge Eaton's next court status report drops — and it will tell every importer in America whether they're in the 21% getting paid or the 79% still stuck. If your refund is significant and you haven't filed yet, time is up. If you filed and you're stuck on errors, you have a small window to fix and resubmit before your entries age out of the 80-day Phase 1 window.
What May 12 Will Reveal
Judge Richard Eaton ordered CBP to file an updated CAPE refund progress report by May 12, 2026. It is the second public progress report after the April 28 filing — and the data inside will reset every importer's read on where they actually stand.
The May 12 report will reveal:
- Updated rejection rates. Currently 15% of CAPE Declarations are bouncing. The May 12 number will tell us whether CBP's processing has improved or whether the queue is hitting harder failures as more complex filings move through.
- Updated acceptance percentages. As of April 26, only 21% of declarations were accepted. The May 12 number sets the new baseline for what "clean filing" actually looks like at scale.
- Number of refunds actually paid. May 11 is the first-payment date. By May 12, there will be a hard count — refunds disbursed via ACH and the dollar total CBP has moved out the door.
- Phase 2 timeline announcements. Phase 1 covers unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation. Everything outside that window is Phase 2 — no announced date yet. The May 12 report may set one.
- Whether Section 122 (10% surcharge) provides any path forward. Section 122 expires around July 24, 2026. Whether any of its tariff revenue creates additional refund eligibility is still being argued in trade-law analysis.
- Whether the government appeal is on track. The deadline runs through approximately June 7. Filings between now and May 12 will hint at whether the government is preparing an appeal or letting the deadline pass.
The Three Groups of Importers on May 12
Every importer in America is about to land in one of three buckets. Where you sit on Monday morning determines what you do this weekend.
Group A: Filed clean, accepted, refund hits bank account. Approximately 3% of submitted entries reached this stage as of April 28. These importers had clean data, ACH enrolled, ACE configured, the right party filing — and they're about to get paid. What to do: nothing this weekend. Watch your bank account. Begin tax planning for the refund.
Group B: Filed but stuck in validation queue. Roughly 76% of submitted entries are sitting in some stage of validation, manual review, or partial rejection. The 80-day clock keeps running. What to do: pull your rejection report from ACE, identify which entries failed and which error codes fired, sort by liquidation date (oldest first), and prioritize fixing the entries closest to the 80-day cutoff. For refunds over $250,000, get a professional audit before you resubmit — one bad resubmission routes your claim to manual review for months.
Group C: Haven't filed yet, OR rejected outright. If your refund is significant and you have not filed, the May 11-12 cycle is a public reminder that the train is leaving. What to do: calculate your estimated refund first, audit your entries before building your CAPE declaration, and file before the June 7 government appeal deadline to maximize the chance of payment before any potential Federal Circuit stay.
Where do you stand on May 12?
60 seconds tells you whether you're Group A, B, or C.
Where did you import from?
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The Government Appeal Threat
The government's deadline to appeal the Court of International Trade's nationwide IEEPA refund order runs through approximately June 7, 2026. Trade legal analysts widely expect an appeal to the Federal Circuit. A successful appeal could result in a stay that delays additional refund payments while the appeal is pending.
The rule that matters: refunds processed and paid before any stay is granted are unlikely to be clawed back. Refunds still in queue when a stay drops are exposed.
The combination matters: file clean, file fast, get accepted, get paid before June 7.
For importers in Group B (stuck) or Group C (not filed), the next four weeks are the safest payment window. After June 7, the calculus changes: refunds in queue when an appeal stay drops could be paused indefinitely.
What to Do With 2 Days Left
If your refund is under $50,000:
- Use CBP's standard process — file through your customs broker
- Make sure ACH banking is enrolled in ACE
- Watch for May 11 deposits if you've already filed cleanly
If your refund is between $50,000 and $250,000:
- Get a pre-filing review of your data
- Verify ACH and ACE setup
- File this weekend if possible — the May 12 court report will spike public attention and broker queues
If your refund is over $250,000:
- Stop trying to DIY this
- Get professional review of every entry before submission
- The cost of professional filing is fractional compared to the risk of rejection at scale or aging out of the 80-day window
The May 12 report is the second-to-last public dataset before June 7. The numbers it shows — better or worse — will move broker queues, audit demand, and pricing for refund services for the rest of Phase 1.
Key Takeaway
Two days until first refunds. Three days until the May 12 court status report rewrites every importer's understanding of where they actually stand. Twenty-nine days until the June 7 government appeal deadline closes the safest payment window. The next 30 days decide whether your refund lands in your bank account or sits in queue when a Federal Circuit stay potentially drops. For Group A: nothing to do. For Group B: triage by liquidation date and fix the entries closest to aging out. For Group C: file clean before June 7, and for refunds over $250,000 get professional review before submission. The math on getting it wrong at scale exceeds the cost of getting professional help.
For refunds over $250,000, our network handles every step
Master Plan Accounting and Frost Law AZ. Pre-filing entry audit. CSV preparation. ACE submission. Status monitoring. The trade attorneys work on contingency. Free 15-minute consultation.
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