TL;DR
- Brent crude: $101/barrel (was $61 in January)
- US gas prices up $1.16/gallon since the war began
- Jet fuel up 95%
- Hormuz still blocked — 20% of world oil flow disrupted
- $166 billion in tariff refunds sit unclaimed by US importers
- First refunds arrive May 11 — that’s 2 days away
- Section 122 tariffs (10%) expire July 24 — 76 days
“Every dollar of unclaimed tariff refund is a dollar that should be cushioning the war’s blow to your business.”
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On Thursday morning, three US destroyers came under Iranian missile fire transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, gas at the pump hit $4.46. By Friday, the USS Mason was reported in defensive operations near Bandar Abbas. Brent crude closed at $101.26. For US importers, every day of this war costs money. A lot of money. The good news — and it is news that most importers have not acted on — is that $166 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds is now flowing back to importers through CBP's CAPE portal. Refunds processed and paid before the government's June 7 appeal deadline are unlikely to be clawed back. Unclaimed refunds, in this market, are the closest thing to a war hedge that has nothing to do with oil futures.
The Moment: Where We Are Today
Operation Freedom — Trump's naval escort campaign in the Strait of Hormuz — is technically paused. A fragile ceasefire was announced after Thursday's fire exchange. Reuters and Reuters-aligned wire services characterize the truce as "hours-to-days" in stability, not weeks.
Hormuz traffic remains far below pre-war levels. Tanker tracking data show commercial transits down ~60% versus the pre-conflict baseline. Several major Asian carriers have suspended new bookings through the strait pending the next 72 hours of intelligence.
War-risk insurance for vessels transiting Hormuz spiked from a pre-war ~0.125% of vessel value to 0.4% per voyage. For a $250 million tanker, that is approximately $1 million in extra premium per single transit.
Fuel surcharges are now baked into every major US carrier's rate sheet. UPS, FedEx, USPS, and Amazon Logistics have all added war-risk and fuel-surcharge layers in May.
"This is the greatest global energy security challenge in history." — IEA Executive Director
Bandar Abbas, Iran's largest oil-export port, remains under partial US naval observation. The military strike risk remains live. The Iran attack posture has not de-escalated.
The Numbers: How the War Hits Your Landed Cost
The cost of importing anything just got materially more expensive. Here's the math.
ENERGY:
- Brent crude: $101/bbl (up 65% since January's $61)
- WTI crude: $95/bbl
- US retail gasoline: up $1.16/gallon since the war began
- Jet fuel: up 95%
SHIPPING:
- War-risk insurance: from 0.125% to 0.4% of vessel value per Hormuz transit
- For a $250M tanker: ~$1 million extra per voyage
- Fuel surcharges added across UPS, FedEx, USPS, Amazon, Maersk, MSC
- 84% of Gulf-origin oil normally goes to Asia — China, India, Japan, South Korea
- Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan: among the worst-hit importer-source nations for downstream input pricing
FERTILIZER & FOOD:
- Global fertilizer prices: up 15-20% in H1 2026
- Spring planting affected — knock-on effect on US food prices into 2027
- Soybean and corn futures up ~12% since the conflict opened
For an importer moving $1 million in goods from Vietnam, the war added an estimated $30,000–$60,000 in landed-cost surcharges over the past 90 days. That's not a tariff. That's just the war tax.
The Invisible Cost: Who's Paying for This
You are. If you import goods to the US — apparel, electronics, steel, lumber, food, fertilizer, packaging, plastics — you're paying for this war whether you have priced it out yet or not. The carriers passed it through. Your insurance reflects it. Your transit times got longer.
For mid-market importers (companies moving $1M–$50M in annual imports), the war surcharges hit hardest. Big-box retailers can negotiate carrier contracts and absorb. Small importers can pass costs through faster because their SKU mix turns over weekly. Mid-market eats it.
And here's the brutal part — most of these importers paid IEEPA tariffs in 2025 at rates between 18% and 49% depending on country. The Supreme Court ruled those tariffs unconstitutional in February 2026. Refunds opened April 20. And most importers haven't claimed theirs yet.
The Offset: $166 Billion Sitting in a Refund Queue
$166 billion. 330,000 importers. 53 million entries. That's what CBP owes — and most of it hasn't been claimed.
Here's what the data from US Customs shows as of CBP's last court filing:
- 75,306 CAPE refund declarations filed
- 47,315 properly accepted (62% of submissions)
- 21% moved into actual refund processing
- 2.1 million entries rejected outright at validation
- First refunds hit bank accounts: May 11–12 (in 2 days)
Translation: four out of five importers who tried to file are stuck. Most of them filed too fast, with bad data, and got rejected. The ones who filed clean are about to get paid. Sidley Austin and Baker Tilly published parallel analyses last week confirming the same diagnosis: speed without accuracy is the wrong filing strategy.
The June 7 government appeal deadline is now 29 days away. A successful Federal Circuit appeal could result in a stay that pauses additional refund payments. Refunds processed and paid before any stay is granted are unlikely to be clawed back. Refunds still in queue when a stay drops are exposed.
Calculate Your Refund Before May 11
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Why This Matters Right Now
The war isn't ending soon. Even with a fragile ceasefire, Hormuz traffic remains far below pre-war levels. War-risk pricing is sticky — once insurance markets reprice, they take quarters to come back down.
Importers are absorbing every dollar of war cost. And refusing to claim refunds CBP already owes.
The per-million-dollar math is direct:
- Every $1,000,000 you imported from Vietnam in 2025 = potentially $460,000 in IEEPA refunds (46% rate)
- Every $1,000,000 from China = $350,000 in refunds (35% rate)
- Every $1,000,000 from India = $180,000 (18% rate)
- Every $1,000,000 from South Korea = $250,000 (25% rate)
- Every $1,000,000 from Bangladesh = $370,000 (37% rate)
That money sitting at CBP is your war hedge. It's not optional anymore.
What to Do Before May 11
- Estimate your refund. Takes 60 seconds. Free.
- Check your ACE Portal access. Without ACE and ACH enrolled, refunds cannot be paid by CBP — they don't issue paper checks.
- Review your filing status — accepted, rejected, or not yet filed?
- For refunds over $250K: Stop trying to DIY. Get a pre-filing audit. The cost of professional filing is fractional compared to the risk of a rejection at scale.
- Watch May 12. Court status report drops. Public picture of who's getting paid and what the next phase looks like.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis isn't over. The Iran war isn't over. The fragile ceasefire could break by next week.
The $166 billion CBP owes US importers? That's not in dispute. It's just in a queue.
Get in line.
Key Takeaway
Brent at $101. Gas up $1.16/gallon. Jet fuel up 95%. War-risk insurance triple. Hormuz traffic down 60%. Every one of those numbers lands on US importers as higher landed costs over the next 90 days. The IEEPA refund window — $166 billion of it — is the only material offset on the table. Phase 1 is live. First refunds arrive May 11–12. The June 7 government appeal deadline is the cutoff for the safest payment window. For importers carrying $1M+ in 2025 IEEPA-rate import volume, the refund is now a war hedge, not a cleanup project. File clean. Get accepted. Get paid before the stay risk lands.
Get in line for your refund.
$166B sits in CBP’s queue. The June 7 government appeal deadline is 29 days away. Refunds paid before any Federal Circuit stay are unlikely to be clawed back.