This is a developing story. USTR's Section 301 decision is due July 20 and Section 122 lapses July 24 — model your post-deadline costs under both outcomes now. Model your post-July 24 rates →
The 10% Section 122 tariff — the flat rate that replaced the struck-down IEEPA tariffs on February 24, 2026 — reaches its hard statutory sunset on **July 24, 2026**. That's nine days away, and the next nine days decide what nearly every non-EU import into the US costs for the rest of 2026. The President cannot extend Section 122 unilaterally; Congress has shown no urgency to extend it; and USTR faces a **July 20 completion deadline** on the Section 301 investigations proposed to replace it with **12.5% duties on 46 countries**. Meanwhile, the Federal Circuit appeal over Section 122's legality is quietly running the same script that ended with $166 billion in IEEPA refunds. Whether you import from China, Vietnam, India, or Germany, here is exactly what can happen on July 24, who is insulated, and what to do before the deadline.
Where Things Stand With 9 Days Left
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows an emergency import surcharge of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days — extension beyond that requires an act of Congress. The current 10% tariff was signed February 20, 2026, took effect February 24, and hits day 150 on July 24, 2026.
As of July 15:
- Congress has not moved to extend it. The momentum runs the other way — the 'Reclaim Trade Powers Act' would constrain presidential tariff authority, not renew it.
- USTR's replacement is due July 20. The two Section 301 investigations opened March 11 (excess manufacturing capacity in 16 economies; forced-labor enforcement across 60+) run on an accelerated timeline with a completion deadline four days before the sunset. The proposal on the table: 12.5% duties on 46 countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea.
- The Federal Circuit appeal is live. A stay keeps CBP collecting Section 122 duties while the courts weigh whether the tariff was lawful in the first place — the same sequence that preceded the IEEPA refunds.
Scenario 1: Section 301 Lands on Time (Most Likely)
If USTR finalizes by the July 20 deadline, the 12.5% Section 301 duties can take effect at or near the July 24 handoff, and the practical outcome for the 46 listed countries is a rate increase: 12.5% instead of today's 10%, on top of MFN and any existing surcharges.
Two structural differences matter more than the 2.5 points. Section 301 has no statutory rate cap and no time limit — it does not sunset in 150 days, it does not need Congress, and rates can be raised by product list later. Importers who treated the 10% as temporary pain should plan for the replacement as the durable baseline. Countries not on the 46-country list would simply revert to MFN plus any existing Section 232/301 exposure.
Scenario 2: The Gap — Days or Weeks of MFN-Only Rates
If the Section 301 decision slips past July 24 — litigation, comment-period challenges, or simple delay — Section 122 lapses with nothing behind it, and imports revert to pre-IEEPA baseline rates: MFN, plus existing Section 232 on steel/aluminum/copper/autos, plus the existing (pre-2026) China Section 301 lists.
For a typical Vietnamese or Indian shipment, that's a swing from 10% down to low-single-digit MFN — briefly the cheapest import window since March 2025. Entry timing is everything here: duty rates are set by the date of entry, not the ship date. Goods already on the water can land in the gap if entries are timed after the lapse; goods rushed to enter before July 24 lock in the 10%. If your broker can legally manage entry dates around the deadline week, this is the week to talk to them.
Scenario 3: Congress Extends (Unlikely but Not Zero)
Congress could pass legislation extending Section 122 or authorizing a successor surcharge. Nothing on the floor suggests it: no extension bill has advanced, and the visible legislative energy is on *restraining* tariff authority. Treat an extension as a tail scenario — but one that resolves within days either way, which is another reason not to make irreversible sourcing decisions before July 24.
Who Is Insulated From July 24
A large share of US import value doesn't actually turn on this deadline:
- EU goods moved to the trade deal's 15% all-inclusive ceiling on July 1, 2026. The ceiling replaced Section 122 for EU origin, so the sunset changes nothing for German machinery or Italian apparel.
- USMCA-qualifying goods from Mexico and Canada enter at 0% and never carried the Section 122 layer.
- Section 232 articles — steel, aluminum, copper articles at 50%, autos at 25% — are unaffected. Section 122 never stacked on the metal content of 232 articles, and 232 has no sunset.
- China's existing Section 301 lists (7.5-100%) predate 2026 and survive July 24 regardless of what happens to the new investigations.
The deadline is primarily a story about non-EU, non-USMCA general merchandise — apparel from South Asia, electronics from Southeast Asia, machinery from Japan and Korea.
The Refund Wildcard: Section 122 Is Running the IEEPA Script
The IEEPA tariffs were collected under a stay while appeals ran — then the Supreme Court struck them down, and $166 billion became refundable. Section 122 is now in the same posture: challenged in court, upheld nowhere, collected under a Federal Circuit stay.
If the courts ultimately rule the Section 122 tariff unlawful, every dollar of the 10% paid between February 24 and July 24 becomes a refund candidate — a five-month, economy-wide pool. Nobody can promise that outcome. What importers can do now is cheap: keep clean records of every entry that paid Section 122 (ACE entry summaries, 7501s, liquidation dates), the same documentation discipline that separated fast IEEPA refunds from rejected ones. If the ruling comes, the importers with organized entry data will be first in line — again.
The Checklist for the Next 9 Days
1. Model both rate outcomes. Run your top SKUs through the scenario simulator at 12.5% (Section 301 replacement) and at MFN-only (the gap). Know which outcome you're rooting for and what it's worth.
2. Talk entry timing with your broker this week. If the gap scenario materializes, entry dates after July 24 capture it; if you'd rather lock the known 10% than risk 12.5%, entries before July 24 do that.
3. Pull your Section 122 payment records. ACE ES-003 activity report, entry numbers, duty amounts since February 24. Twenty minutes of documentation now positions you for a second refund wave if the Federal Circuit rules against the tariff.
4. Watch July 20. USTR's completion deadline lands four days before the sunset. The announcement (or its absence) tells you which scenario you're in with time to act.
5. Don't forget the first refund. The IEEPA pool is still paying out — $86 billion of $166 billion repaid as of July 10 — and CAPE Phase 1 and 2 windows keep running. If you haven't filed, that's still the largest sum of money on this page.
Key Takeaway
July 24 is the most consequential tariff date since the February SCOTUS ruling — and unlike that one, you can see this deadline coming. Model the two realistic outcomes, position entry timing with your broker, and document your Section 122 payments in case the courts turn the last five months into refund eligibility. And if you paid IEEPA tariffs in 2025, file for that refund now — that money is already owed, no court ruling required.
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