First refunds arrive May 11. Of 75,300 declarations filed, only 21% have been accepted.
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CBP filed an official progress report with Judge Richard Eaton on April 28. The numbers are now public — and they tell a brutal story about who gets paid and who doesn't. 75,306 CAPE declarations have been filed. Only 21% have been accepted. Only 3% of entries have entered the actual refund stage. The first refund payments are expected to land in importer bank accounts around May 11. If you're not in the 3%, you're not getting paid on May 11. Here's the breakdown of why 79% of claims are stuck, what the May 12 court report will reveal, and what to do this week.
The Numbers Nobody Wanted to Share
CBP filed an official progress report with Judge Richard Eaton on April 28. The numbers are now public — and they tell a brutal story about who gets paid and who doesn't.
As of April 26, 2026:
- 75,306 CAPE declarations have been filed - 47,315 declarations were properly filed (62%) - 11.2 million individual entries were submitted - Only 1.74 million entries have cleared all validations (about 16%) - 2.1 million entries were rejected outright at validation stage (about 19%) - Only 21% of total declaration submissions have been accepted - Only 3% of entries have entered the actual refund stage
Translation: 8 in 10 importers who rushed to file are stuck. Their entries are sitting in validation limbo, manual review queues, or have been kicked back outright. Meanwhile their 80-day Phase 1 window keeps running.
The first refund payments are expected to land in importer bank accounts around May 11. If you're not in the 3% — you're not getting paid on May 11.
The May 12 Deadline That Matters
Judge Eaton ordered CBP to file its next progress report on May 12. That filing will reveal:
- How many additional refunds were processed in the next two weeks - Updated rejection rates and processing times - Whether the May 11 first-payment estimate held - Whether Phase 2 has been scheduled
For importers, May 12 is when the second wave of public scrutiny hits the refund process. Every importer reading these numbers will realize their filing strategy needs to be reviewed.
If you haven't filed yet, you have nine days to get your declaration in clean before the public attention spike.
The June 7 Appeal Threat Is Still Real
The government's deadline to appeal the CIT's nationwide refund order runs through early June 2026 — approximately June 7. A successful appeal could result in a Federal Circuit stay that significantly delays payments.
Refunds processed and paid before any stay is granted are unlikely to be clawed back. Refunds still in queue when a stay drops are exposed.
The combination matters: file clean, file fast, get accepted, get paid before June 7.
Why 79% of Claims Are Stuck
Sidley Austin's analysis of CBP's April 28 report identifies the specific reasons.
**Categorical exclusions (entries that can't qualify for Phase 1):** - Reconciliation entries and Type 09 reconciliation summaries - Drawback entries - USMCA duty-deferral entries - Temporary importation under bond (TIB) entries - Entries pending AD/CVD liquidation - Entries on which the surety paid the IEEPA duties
**Validation failures (the most common rejection category):** - HTS code mismatches between submission and CBP records - Entered value discrepancies - Quantity variances at the line level - Duplicate entries appearing on multiple declarations - Missing IEEPA Chapter 99 HTS codes on the original entry
**Access and authorization issues:** - ACE Portal account not properly configured - ACH refund enrollment not completed - Wrong party trying to file (must be original IOR or original filing broker)
**Compliance flags:** - Tariff stacking conflicts with Section 232 or Section 301 - Country of origin discrepancies - Post Summary Corrections (PSCs) creating data conflicts
Each of these categories represents a pile of stuck refunds. For a company with $2 million in estimated refunds spread across hundreds of entries, even one category affecting 10% of their entries could mean $200,000 sitting in CBP review for months.
The Math on What You Actually Need
Sidley Austin and Baker Tilly are now both saying the same thing publicly: speed without accuracy is the wrong strategy.
A fast submission with errors triggers manual review. Manual review extends timelines from 60–90 days to potentially 6+ months. Manual review can also surface compliance issues that lead to False Claims Act exposure for declarations made knowingly with bad data.
A slightly slower, audited submission moves cleanly through CAPE and into payment.
For importers with $250,000+ in refunds, the calculation is simple:
- DIY rushed filing → 19% chance of rejection, possible manual review, exposure to False Claims Act if errors are knowing - Professional pre-filing audit → catches errors before submission, files clean once, paid in 60–90 days
The 3% of entries that are in the refund stage right now? Almost all of them came from importers and brokers who took time to audit before submitting.
What to Do This Week
**If you haven't filed yet:** 1. Calculate your estimated refund first — know what you're dealing with 2. Get an audit of your entries before building your CAPE declaration 3. File clean before June 7 to maximize chance of payment before any potential appeal stay
**If you filed and got rejected:** 1. Pull your rejection report from ACE 2. Identify which validation triggered each entry's rejection 3. Resubmit only after fixing the underlying data issue 4. The 80-day window is still running — entries near the cutoff need priority
**If you filed and got accepted:** 1. Watch your bank account around May 11 onward 2. Begin tax planning for the refund (income, COGS adjustment, or inventory basis depending on accounting treatment)
For refunds over $100,000, our network handles the entire process — pre-filing audit, CAPE declaration prep, ACE submission, and tracking through payment. The trade attorneys work on contingency. Free 15-minute consultation.
Key Takeaway
Of 75,306 CAPE declarations filed, 21% have been accepted and 3% have reached the refund stage. The first payments are expected around May 11. The May 12 court progress report will reveal whether that estimate held and where the rest of the queue stands. The June 7 government appeal deadline remains a real threat to refunds still in progress when a stay could drop. Three things separate the 3% from the 79%: clean data, the right entry types, and a clean ACH-and-ACE setup before the file even goes in. If your refund is over $100,000 and you haven't filed — or you filed and got rejected — this week is the week to fix it.
For refunds over $100,000, our network handles the entire process
Pre-filing audit, CAPE declaration prep, ACE submission, and tracking through payment. The trade attorneys work on contingency. Free 15-minute consultation.
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